Thu, December 13, 2018
The pound could still be in for rough stretch, even after Theresa May survived a bid to oust her as she seeks to rally support for her Brexit deal.
Sterling strengthen the more yesterday in the run to the vote than the whole previous month but has failed to build upon that strength after Conservative Party voted 200 to 117 to keep May as party leader.
Given the number of votes that went against her, and the uncertainty ahead – the PM still faces the daunting task of getting her Brexit plan past Parliament.
It failed to rally further, when you see a dynamic like that, it means the good news is priced in.
While last night vote means that the Theresa May can’t be challenged within her party for another year, the limited margin of victory may be sapping sterling gains.
Wednesday may amount to a temporary release for the embattled premier. She faces hardened opposition in Parliament to the Brexit deal she negotiated with the EU, and her attempts to get better terms have fallen flat. If May cannot get her exit terms through Parliament, Britain will be on course for a no-deal Brexit, risking economic and political upheaval. The idea of a second referendum has also been mooted by some.
As the March deadline edges closer for Britain to leave the EU and urgency builds up, Parliament may have no choice but to vote a deal through, with the alternative being a no-deal Brexit, which no one wants.
The pound rose as much as 1.5% last night to $1.2672, from 1.2478 against the dollar, sterling rose to 1.111 from 1.102 against the Euro.
Data to look out today.
12:45 EUR ECB bank rate decision.
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| Day | Time | Currency | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| THU | 12:45 | EUR | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (DEC 13) | THU | 12:45 | EUR | EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (DEC 13) | THU | 12:45 | EUR | EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (DEC 13) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Import Price Index (MoM) (NOV) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Export Price Index (MoM) (NOV) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Export Price Index (YoY) (NOV) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (NOV) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Initial Jobless Claims (DEC 8) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Continuing Claims (DEC 1) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (DEC 7) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (DEC 7) | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD U.S. to Sell 8-Week Bills | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD U.S. to Sell 4-Week Bills | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD U.S. to Sell USD16 Bln 30-Year Bonds Reopening | THU | 13:30 | USD | USD Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) |
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*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please contact our dealing team
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