Daily Foreign Exchange Market Update

Tue, July 12, 2011

The Pound finished the day following the same pattern as much of last week; higher against the Euro and slightly lower against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market. The GBP/EUR exchange rate pushed up from the morning’s open at 1.1293 to trade at 1.1350 by the close, with the GBP/USD rate dropping from the morning’s level of 1.5970, down to 1.5925. This was again good news for people who are buying Euros, but not so good for those buying Dollars. There was no economic data of note released to influence movements, with the market taking direction from the ongoing unsolved debt issues in Europe.

Today will be a different story in terms of economic data though from the UK, with a lot of high-level releases. The early hours of the morning will see Nationwide consumer confidence figures released, which could have a bearing on the direction of the Pound, should we see any surprises to the negative, or the upside. The market will also focus on the release of CPI (inflation) figures, both annualised and monthly, with forecasts calling for no change. Also, retail price index figures are due to report, with analysts calling for a slight increase in the index, from 235.2 up to 235.8. Another piece of important data will be the UK’s visible trade balance, which is set to see a slight improvement in the negative surplus, indicating a boost for the UK’s export market.

The Euro continued to weaken against the Pound and the US Dollar, with the GBP/EUR rate falling from 1.4140 to 1.4029 from the market open to the close. The ongoing unsolved debt issues in Greece are not helping the currency, which despite the ECB hiking rates for the second time this year last week, is suffering because of uncertainty, and the increased possibility of default. Today saw some low-level market data from France, with Industrial and Manufacturing production figures showing impressive monthly growth, from -0.5% up to 2.0%, and 0.1 up to 1.5% respectively. The currency exchange market however, took little notice of this, and continued to show the negative attitude towards Europe’s current situation.  

The European economic docket on Tuesday will see some important data from Germany. CPI (inflation) figures are set to show a slight drop in the harmonised level of growth, with the market predicting a slowdown in the annual rate from 2.4% to 2.3%, and no growth month-on-month, with the level set to hold at 0.0%. This would not be good news for the Euro, as it would show that the largest economy in the Euro-zone is showing a drop in prices, going against the ECB’s rhetoric that rate-hikes are necessary to combat inflation.

The US Dollar continued to strengthen in the foreign exchange market yesterday, benefiting from its safe-haven status by gaining against the Euro and The Pound. There were no significant data events released from the US to back up any positive movement, but the feeling among traders is that inflows to the currency during times of uncertainty particularly within the European market are benefiting the Dollar.

Today’s data may exert more influence on the currency market; with US trade balance figures set to show an increase in the negative surplus incurred by the US, from -43.7 billion dollars, to -44.0 billion dollars. This is not good news for the US economy as it shows an increasing over-reliance on imported goods, and that more funds for purchases are leaving the US than coming in. The Federal Reserve will also be releasing the minutes form their last policy meeting. The market will watch closely for any indications on future policy, and the Fed’s assessment of the current economic situation.

Data Releases