Current Exchange Rates
|
Currency |
Current Rate |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPUSD |
1.5285 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPEUR |
1.1264 |
|
|
|
||
|
EURUSD |
1.3568 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPJPY |
136.56 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCHF |
1.6482 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPAUD |
1.7168 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCAD |
1.6194 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNZD |
2.2004 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSGD |
2.1517 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPHKD |
11.8670 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCZK |
29.225 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPPLN |
4.4823 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSEK |
10.941 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPDKK |
8.3826 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNOK |
9.0718 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPTHB |
50.47 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPZAR |
11.86 |
|
|
|
*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please call our dealing team on +44 (0)1375 489 480
Market Overview
Thursday saw Sterling fall massively against the Euro and Dollar. Against the Dollar, Sterling hit a low of 1.5189 and against the Euro it dropped to 1.1243. Poor business investment data for the UK didn’t help matters as the fourth quarter showed investment fell by 5.8% when analysts had expected it to increase by 0.1%. The annualized data also fell below expectations showing a decrease of 24.1% as opposed to the predicted 18.5% drop.
Europe’s data on confidence, for the most part, came within expectations or exceeded them. The Euro-zone business climate indicator for February came out as -0.98 when analysts had expected -1.05. Industrial confidence came out as expected with -13, a 1 point improvement from January’s score of -14. Confidence in the services sector came in with an index reading of 1 against the predicted -1. Consumer confidence hit expectations with an index of -17, 1 point down from the upwardly revised -16 index reading that we saw last month. The exception was the report on economic confidence which fell from 96.0 in January to 95.9, 0.5 points away from the predicted 96.4 reading.
The US Dollar gained ground when durable goods orders increased by 3% in January double the increase that economists had expected and a leap from the 1.9% growth that was seen in December. This increase was attributed to a 15.6% increase in orders for transportation equipment, which in turn reflected a 126% increase in orders for commercial aircraft and parts. When transport equipment is taken out of the equation, durable orders actually fell by 0.6% compared to a 0.2% rise in the previous month. The drop in orders contradicted analysts who had expected 1.0% growth.
Counter to the positive durable goods data, the US Labor department released its weekly report which showed an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims. First time claims rose from 474,000 in the previous week to 496,000 claims. The consensus had been for claims to slip to 460,000. Continuing claims rose to 4.617million in the week of 13th February from the preceding week's revised level of 4.611million. More negative data came from the US house price index which fell by 1.6% in December after it rose by 0.4% in the previous month. The quarterly report on house prices also fell by 0.1% after seeing 0.1% growth in the third quarter.
Friday’s calendar has started off with Australian Private Sector credit for January which beat analyst’ estimates showing the month-on-month private credit rose by 0.4% as opposed to the 0.2% predicted increase and a faster pace of growth than the 0.3% growth that was seen in December. Annually private credit rose by 1.3%, a slightly slower pace of increase than the previously reported 1.5% growth, but still beating estimates of 1.1% growth.
The Nationwide house price survey for the UK revealed 1% drop in house prices after January saw prices increase by a revised 1.4%. The consensus had been for the pace of growth to slow down to 0.4% from the origin 1.2% growth that was reported in January. Annually house prices have risen by 9.2%, following short of economist estimates but still showing a faster pace of growth than the 8.6% increase seen in the preceding report. The GfK consumer confidence survey revealed that consumer sentiment moved up by 3 points from -17 to -14 showing a slight improvement in sentiment but overall still a negative outlook.
Looking ahead to the rest of today's data, the UK is expecting 4th Quarter GDP to grow by 0.2% after the 3rd quarter grew by a dismal 0.1%, the first indication that the United Kingdom had emerged out of the recession, although barely. The annualized GDP data is expected to have contracted by 3.1% a marginally slower pace of contraction than the last report which showed GDP to have fallen by 3.2%. An increase in UK GDP would see the Pound rise in value although the market is likely to move towards this outcome and will only shift if GDP falls short or exceeds expectations.
Economists expected the GDP data to breakdown into the following:
- Private Consumption to grow by 0.3% after the 3rd quarter grew by 0.1%
- Government Spending to slow its pace of increase from 0.3% to 0.2% growth
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation to grow from 2.2% previously to 0.2% in the 4th Quarter
- Exports to increase from 0.8% to 3.4%
- Imports to rise 1.5% to 4.6%
The Euro-zone is expected to see Italian PPI (producer price index) grow from 0.2% to 0.4% in January and annually fall by 0.4% from a 1.6% decline. Euro-zone CPI (consumer price index) should see growth of 1% from the previous report's 0.9% increase, core CPI is expected to see the same margin of growth but from 1.1% previously.
Further European news will be announced at 12:00 GMT and German CPI is expected to grow by 0.5% in February after it fell by 0.6% in January. Annually it is expected to increase at of slower pace with 0.7% growth from 0.8% in the previous report. Economists predict the EU harmonized CPI to grow by 0.5% from January's decline of 0.6%. Year-on-year this expected to drop from a 0.8% increase to a milder 0.6% increase. Growth in German CPI will help continue the Euro's push against Sterling that we witnessed yesterday.
The US will have their own GDP data announced this afternoon with expectations for the US economy to expand by 5.7% the same pace of growth for the previous quarter. Personal consumption grew by 0.2% in the 3rd Quarter and a continued increase in the 4th Quarter would see the Dollar strengthen. No predictions were given for its outcome. The GDP Price Index is expected to hold its pace of 0.6% growth into the 4th quarter and core personal consumption expenditure is also expected to maintain its 1.4% growth. Being a hugely important piece of economic data, any growth in GDP will add value to the Dollar although, like UK GDP, the data will be well anticipated and the market will move in-line with expectations before its announcement. Should US GDP fall short of expectations then the dollar will weaken and if it overshoots it then the Dollar will appreciate.
US data continues with the Chicago Purchasing manager survey which in the month of February is expected to show a lower reading of 59 against the preceding month’s score of 61.5. In the Purchasing manager survey scores above 50 reflect expansion so this data would still be positive, although a continued downward trend on the index would weaken the Dollar. The University of Michigan confidence survey is predicted to edge up slightly from 73.7 to 73.9. The consensus on existing home sales is for sales to move up from 5.45million sales to 5.50million in January. This is an increase of 0.9% compared to a drop of 16.7% in the previous month. An increase in home sales would see the Dollar strengthen and an increase in confidence would also see it strengthen.
Data Releases
|
DAY |
TIME |
CURRENCY |
EVENT |
|
|
|
||||
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Private Consumption (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Government Spending (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Exports (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Imports (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:30 |
GBP |
Index of Services (3Mo3M) (DEC) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Italian Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Italian Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
13:30 |
USD |
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q S) |
|
|
FRI |
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Consumption (4Q S) |
|
|
FRI |
13:30 |
USD |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q S) |
|
|
FRI |
13:30 |
USD |
Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q S) |
|
|
FRI |
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago Purchasing Manager (FEB) |
|
|
FRI |
14:55 |
USD |
U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F) |
|
|
FRI |
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales (JAN) |
|
|
FRI |
15:00 |
USD |
NAPM-Milwaukee (FEB) |
|
|
FRI |
15:45 |
USD |
Fed's Dudley & Kocherlakota Speak in NY at Policy Forum |
|
|
FRI |
18:30 |
USD |
Fed's Tarullo, Evans Speak on Regulation in New York |
|
|
FRI |
21:15 |
USD |
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (FEB) |
|
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