Current Exchange Rates
|
Currency |
Current Rate |
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|
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|
GBPUSD |
1.5268 |
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|
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|
GBPEUR |
1.1164 |
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|
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||
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EURUSD |
1.3672 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPJPY |
137.41 |
|
|
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||
|
GBPCHF |
1.6151 |
|
|
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||
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GBPAUD |
1.6561 |
|
|
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||
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GBPCAD |
1.5417 |
|
|
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||
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GBPNZD |
2.1339 |
|
|
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||
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GBPSGD |
2.1269 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPHKD |
11.849 |
|
|
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||
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GBPCZK |
28.306 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPPLN |
4.3219 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPSEK |
10.8358 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPDKK |
8.3069 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPNOK |
8.908 |
|
|
|
||
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GBPTHB |
49.31 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPZAR |
11.1542 |
|
|
|
*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please call our dealing team on +44 (0)1375 489 480
Market Overview
Sterling gained some well needed ground yesterday as jobless claims fell unexpectedly in February. The number of claims fell by 32,300 in February when the consensus forecast had been for an increase of 6,000, and this drop in claims followed a downwardly revised 5,300 increase in January. This is the biggest fall in claims since November 1997. Weekly earnings also rose above expectations by 1.4% over the previous growth of 1.2%. The headline report for yesterday was the Bank of England’s meeting minutes which revealed that at the last monetary policy meeting all nine policy makers voted to hold interest rates at the record low of 0.5%. There was also a unanimous decision to hold the £200 billion asset purchase programme. The BOE stated that they are unlikely to change interest rates in the near future as any rise in the cost of borrowing could threaten the fragile nature of the economy. This decision has confirmed the committee’s “wait and see” approach. The good news allowed Sterling to reach a high of 1.1165 against the Euro and 1.5379 against the Dollar.
Unlike the UK, yesterday’s economic data from Europe didn’t paint a positive picture. 4th quarter labour costs only rose by 2.2% instead of the predicted 2.7% increase and the 3rd quarter labour costs were revised down to 3.0% growth. Construction output for the euro-zone worsened with the monthly output report showing a decrease of 2.2% which following on from a 1% drop and annually output fell 12.5%. The data shows that the construction sector is on a continuing downward trend which will only have a negative effect on the Euro. Lastly Italy’s current account deficit widened from €3.769 billion in December to €5.461 billion in January.
The US suffered from less than brilliant economic data. The weekly mortgage applications report was the first to disappoint with a fall of 1.9% in applications compared to the 0.5% increase that was recorded in the previous report. February's producer prices were worse than expected with a drop of 0.6% instead of 0.2%, following 1.4% increase. Annually PPI did show growth but at 4.4% it fell short of the expected 4.9% increase and was lower than the preceding growth of 4.6%. Month-on-month core PPI came in as expected with a 0.1% increase down from 0.3% increase in January and annually core PPI maintained its pace of growth at 1.0% as was expected by economists.
Today's calendar starts off with Italy's trade balance for January which economists have predicted with show a wider deficit of 1.65 billion from 123 million. At the same time of release will be January’s current account balance for the whole of the Euro-zone. While no consensus has been given as to where the current account will be, an increase on the surplus of December’s seasonally adjusted figure of €1.9 billion or the non-adjusted surplus of €9.4 billion will make the Euro appreciate in value.
Half an hour later the UK is expected to see February's mortgage approvals from the major banks increase from 49,000 to 54,000. Net borrowing and public finances are both expected to increase from January into February. Increases in either figure paint an unfavourable picture for the UK economy as increases in public sector borrowing indicate a worsening fiscal deficit which in turn is bearish for Sterling. The consensus on Public sector net borrowing and public finances is for an increase of £14 billion and £11 billion respectively. The final report of the day for the UK will be the M4 money supply report which is predicted to see the money supply increase by a greater margin of 0.7% over 0.4% previously. Annually the pace of increase is predicted to slow from 4.9% to 4.3%.
At 10:00 this morning Europe will release January's trade balance figures. The trade balance is forecast to show a deficit of €4 billion after previously the balance sheet had shown an almost comparable surplus €4.4 billion in December. The seasonally adjust balance is predicted to show a smaller surplus of €5.5 billion compared €7.0 billion in January.
Yesterday afternoon brought us America's producer price data; today will bring their consumer price data. February is set to have seen an increase of 0.1% over the 0.2% in January. Year on year the pace of increase is set to fall to 2.3% from 2.6%. If you exclude food and energy, the consensus for CPI is to rise by 0.1% after seeing it fall by the same margin in the preceding month and annually you’ll see growth slow from 1.6% to 1.4%. Further CPI data will see the non-seasonally adjusted figure rise from a reading of 216.687 to 217.043. Increases in CPI are beneficial to the Dollar as it means there is inflationary pressure for the Fed to raise interest rates which then makes the Dollar more attractive to foreign investors. Amongst the data to be released at midday will be the US 4th quarter current account balance, the consensus for which is to see the deficit widen from $108.8 billion to $119.8 Billion. Such an increase would depreciate the Dollar’s value.
Next we'll initial jobless claims which should fall to 455,000 from 462,000 and continuing claims should decline by 58,000 claims, from 4,558,000 to 4,500,000. A drop in jobless claims whether initial or continuing will add wait to the value of the dollar. As the afternoon continues the Philadelphia Fed is predicted to announce that business conditions will improve from a score of 17.6 to 18.0. The consensus of February's leading indicator is for a slower increase of 1.0% from January's increase 0.3%. Improvements in both the Philly Fed and leading indicators will cast a positive light on the US economy and the dollar should gain some strength.
Data Releases
|
DAY |
TIME |
CURRENCY |
EVENT |
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|
|
||||
|
THU |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Trade Balance EU (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
09:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
09:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
09:30 |
GBP |
Major Banks Mortgage Approvals (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
09:30 |
GBP |
Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
09:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
09:30 |
GBP |
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (FEB P) |
|
|
THU |
09:30 |
GBP |
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (FEB P) |
|
|
THU |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JAN) |
|
|
THU |
11:00 |
GBP |
U.K. CBI Industrial Trends (MAR) |
|
|
THU |
11:30 |
USD |
Fed's Elizabeth Duke Speaks in Washington D.C. |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 13) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Continuing Claims (MAR 6) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (FEB) |
|
|
THU |
12:30 |
USD |
Current Account Balance (4Q) |
|
|
THU |
13:00 |
USD |
Fed's Hoenig, Lacker, Pianalto Speak in Washington D.C. |
|
|
THU |
14:00 |
USD |
Philadelphia Fed. (MAR) |
|
|
THU |
14:00 |
USD |
Leading Indicators (FEB) |
|
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KBR Foreign Exchange PLC
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RM18 7ND