Current Exchange Rates
|
Currency |
Current Rate |
|
|
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||
|
GBPUSD |
1.5042 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPEUR |
1.0992 |
|
|
|
||
|
EURUSD |
1.3682 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPJPY |
136.00 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCHF |
1.5952 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPAUD |
1.6416 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCAD |
1.5306 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNZD |
2.1352 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSGD |
2.1012 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPHKD |
11.673 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCZK |
27.963 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPPLN |
4.2754 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSEK |
10.6736 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPDKK |
8.1786 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNOK |
8.8129 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPTHB |
48.7999 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPZAR |
11.1320 |
|
|
|
*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please call our dealing team on +44 (0)1375 489 480
Market Overview
UK house prices have seen the slowest growth for the month of March since the Rightmove house price report began in January of 2002. According to yesterday's report sellers in the housing market only upped their asking prices by 0.1%, a pittance compared to February's increase of 3.2%. The slow down in price growth was attributed to the 34% increase in properties entering the market which as a result raised competition between sellers and has provided less opportunity to increase asking prices.
Europe hasn't gotten off to a good start this week with the number of employed falling across the whole Euro-zone for the sixth straight quarter. Sequentially employment fell by 0.2% in the 4th quarter but this was a gentler pace of decline compared the previous quarter's fall of 0.5%. Compared to the previous year there was a fall of 2.0% and again the decline eased from a 2.2% in the third quarter.
The US has put a positive spin on its Empire manufacturing data for March. The report from the New York Fed said that manufacturing was down from 24.9 in February to 22.3 in March but still considers this a positive outlook but this would have to be revised if the trend continues in the coming months. Economists had forecast the index to fall to a flat score of 22.
Later into the early part of the afternoon revealed that the difference between foreign purchases of US securities and US purchases of foreign securities has narrowed. The report on TIC (foreign securities) showed a trade surplus of $19.1 Billion in January compared to the $63.3 Billion surplus that was recorded in December. Economists had expected the TIC surplus to narrow but only to $47.5 Billion. The report on Total Net TICs showed an even more disturbing picture with the previous month's $53.6 Billion surplus shrinking to a $33.4 Billion deficit.
Further negative news came from the industrial production report which showed in the month of February US production grew by a meagre 0.1% from 0.9% in the previous month, although the recorded growth was better than the lack of growth that economists had predicted. The NAHB housing market index recorded a fall in the index from 17 to 15 although this was offset by capacity utilization growing to 72.7% from 72.5%.
Tuesday’s calendar has opened with French CPI data for February. Annually France has seen its consumer prices rise by 1.3% after it has risen by 1.1% in the previous month. Month-by-month CPI has grown by 0.6%, after it fell by 0.2% in January. Economists had expected to see a 0.3% growth. The EU harmonized index followed the same trend of growth as the non-harmonized index, which beat the analyst expectations for 0.3% growth. Annually the harmonized grew by 1.4% as opposed to the forecast 1.1% increase. The preceding month had seen CPI rise by 1.2%. This data has helped the Euro appreciate in value so that it is now trading slightly higher against Sterling.
The next lot of CPI data will be from Italy which is expected to see inflation increase by 0.1%, the same pace of growth as the preceding month and annually it is expected to maintain its growth of 1.2%. When harmonised with the EU, CPI is to remain stagnant with no growth and to grow by 1.1% on an annual basis.
Europe will enjoy a brief interlude as the UK announces its January DCLG House Price report which according to the consensus should rise by 3.5% from 2.9%. Growth in house prices usually bolster Sterling’s strength so, should the report come out as expected then Sterling should appreciate against the other majors.
Europe's data will pick back up with Euro-zone CPI which is expected see a rise of 0.3% sequentially for February from a fall of 0.8% in January. Annually CPI should maintain its growth of 0.9% and the core index is anticipated to be down slightly from the 0.9% to 0.8% growth. Simultaneously the german firm ZEW will release its surveys on Germany's economic sentiment and current situation which at present stand at 45.1 and -54.8 respectively, then its survey on the economic sentiment for the whole Euro-zone which in February had a reading of 40.2. Improvements in these index figures will advance the Euro against the other major currencies; likewise a fall will weaken it.
As usual the afternoon will start off the US calender which opens with February's housing starts and building permits. A fall in these two figures, which last month sat at 591,000 and 621,000 respectively would weaken the $ as it shows that property developers are less willing to put up the investment for new developments.
Later into the afternoon the US Fed will announce their interest rate decision, the consensus for which is to remain at 0.25%. Following on from this will be the weekly ABC confidence survey that in the previous week recorded a score of -49 for consumer sentiment. A move towards positive figures will add some value to the dollar and a more negative figure will make it weaken.
Data Releases
|
DAY |
TIME |
CURRENCY |
EVENT |
|
|
|
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|
TUE |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
09:30 |
GBP |
DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (JAN) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAR) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Import Price Index (YoY) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits (MoM) (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits (FEB) |
|
|
TUE |
18:15 |
USD |
Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision |
|
|
TUE |
20:30 |
USD |
API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 12) |
|
|
TUE |
20:30 |
USD |
API U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 12) |
|
|
TUE |
20:30 |
USD |
API U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 12) |
|
|
TUE |
21:00 |
USD |
ABC Consumer Confidence (MAR 14) |
|
Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us directly via:
Business: 0800 8778 466
Personal: 0800 8778 477
Partners: 0800 9555 002
E-mail: info@kbrfx.com
Web : www.kbrfx.com
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KBR Foreign Exchange PLC
Riverside Business Centre
Fort Road
Tilbury
RM18 7ND