Current Exchange Rates
|
Currency |
Current Rate |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPUSD |
1.5685 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPEUR |
1.1519 |
|
|
|
||
|
EURUSD |
1.3615 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPJPY |
141.50 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCHF |
1.6896 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPAUD |
1.7617 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCAD |
1.6461 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNZD |
2.2449 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSGD |
2.2133 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPHKD |
12.186 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPCZK |
29.891 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPPLN |
4.6108 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPSEK |
11.3614 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPDKK |
8.5751 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPNOK |
9.2947 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPTHB |
51.979 |
|
|
|
||
|
GBPZAR |
11.9848 |
|
|
|
*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please call our dealing team on +44 (0)1375 489 480
Market Overview
Yesterday the ECB announced released their monthly bulletin. The bulletin stated that; the ECB expects to see the economy grow at a moderate pace this year and that the recovery process could be uneven. The Governing body said it expects price stability to be maintained over the medium term with inflation to be around 1% in the near-term and to remain moderate over the policy relevant horizon.
The US Labor Department released a report showing that initial jobless claims fell to 440,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 483,000. Expectations had been for jobless claims to slip to 465,000 from the 480,000 that was originally reported last week. Continuing claims also fell to 4.538million in the week that ended on the 30th January, from the previous week’s revised level of 4.617million claims. This is the lowest level that continuing claims has seen since the week of the 3rd January in 2009.
Friday morning has been a busy day so far on the European calendar. 4th Quarter German GPD has stagnated at 0% growth after the previous quarter had seen GDP expand 0.7%. Economists had expected to see GPD expand by 0.2%. Year-on-year Germany’s GDP has contracted by 1.7% when this time last year it contracted by 4.7%. A contraction of 1.6% had been expected by economists. This lack of sequential growth and a larger contraction on the annual data spells bad news for the German economy and the value of the Euro.
Following on from Germany’s GDP was France’s 4th Quarter GDP figures. Quarter-on-quarter France saw their economy grow by 0.6%. The 3rd quarter had seen a 0.2% growth in GDP, a revised figure from the 0.3% growth originally seen, and economists had expected to see a 0.5% growth following on from this. This data will help offset the negative affects the German GDP figures will have on the Euro. Further data from France has revealed non-farm payrolls decline by 0.4% in the 4th quarter after it had fallen by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter.
Continuing with the European calendar, Italian GDP is expected to see a slower pace of growth with 0.1% economic expansion compared to last quarter's growth of 0.6%. The annualized data is expected to show that Italy's economy contracted by 2.6% a slower pace of decline than 4.6% contraction seen in the previous report.
The Euro-zone will expect to seen industrial production grow by 0.1% in December, a much slower pace of growth than the 1% growth seen in November. Year-on-year production should have fallen by 1.7% compared to the 7.1% drop in production seen previously.
Lastly for the European calendar, the GDP data for the whole Euro-zone is expected to show that the economy grew but at slower pace than the 3rd quarter. The 3rd quarter saw the economy expand by 0.4% whereas the 4th quarter is only expected to grow by 0.3%. When looking at the annualized data, the economy is expected to have contracted by 1.9% compared to the last quarter showing the economy's contraction of 4.0%.
This afternoon will see US Advance retail sales, which were originally scheduled for release on Thursday; increase in January by 3.0% after the Christmas period fell by the same margin. Sales less autos should reveal a growth of 0.4% for January after December's sales fell by 0.2%. The last bit of US sales data, sales excluding autos and gas, should see a 0.3% increase after sales fell in December by 0.3%. If the analysts prediction are correct and we see growth across the whole sales sector, then the Dollar will strengthen. Advance retail sales and Sales less-autos are much more highly weighted than the sales exclusive of autos and gas so these figures will have more of an affect should the overshoot or undershoot analyst expectations.
Lastly the University of Michigan's confidence report should see consumer sentiment rise to an index of 74.8 in February after January saw a slightly lower index of 74.4. Any rise in sentiment will be bullish for the Dollar as more people are likely to spend their money and drive the economy.
Data Releases
|
DAY |
TIME |
CURRENCY |
EVENT |
|
|
|
||||
|
FRI |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
09:00 |
EUR |
Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A) |
|
|
FRI |
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q A) |
|
|
FRI |
14:55 |
USD |
U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P) |
|
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Personal: 0800 8778 477
Partners: 0800 9555 002
E-mail: info@kbrfx.com
Web : www.kbrfx.com
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KBR Foreign Exchange PLC
Riverside Business Centre
Fort Road
Tilbury
RM18 7ND