Current Exchange Rates

Currency	Current Rate
GBPUSD	1.4932
GBPEUR	1.0994
EURUSD	1.3579
GBPJPY	134.80
GBPCHF	1.6078
GBPAUD	1.6299
GBPCAD	1.533
GBPNZD	2.1157
GBPSGD	2.0876
GBPHKD	11.585
GBPCZK	28.103
GBPPLN	4.2575
GBPSEK	10.6484
GBPDKK	8.1781
GBPNOK	8.8288
GBPTHB	48.79
GBPZAR	11.0765

*These are indicative rates only, based on interbank prices at the time of writing. For exact rates please call our dealing team on +44 (0)1375 489 480

Market Overview

Tuesday saw the UK’s trade deficit widen unexpectedly in January. According to the Office for National Statistics, the deficit rose sharply from a revised £7.01 billion in December to see a deficit of £7.987 billion. The consensus had been for the deficit to shrink to £7 billion from December’s initial estimate of £7.3billion. The trade balance for Goods in non-EU Nations increased to a deficit of £4.8 billion from £3.4 billion and the total trade balance showed an increased deficit of £3.8 billion in January from £2.6 billion in February. This over shot estimates of a £3 billion deficit. The increase in the countries deficit has held Sterling below 1.50 for the majority of the day.

The US saw some disappointing figures as well. February’s small business optimism dropped 1.3 points from 89.3 to 88.0 and missing the forecasted increase to 90. Economic optimism dropped in March to 45.4 from 46.8 in February. Tuesday’s final figure form the US was the weekly confidence report from ABC which showed consumer sentiment remaining at a score of -49, when the consensus was for consumer sentiment to improve to -48.

In the twilight hours of yesterday night and this morning, Westpac's report on Australian consumer confidence showed that sentiment rose by 0.2% in March from a decline of 2.6%. Home loans continued to fall showing a decrease of 7.9% after falling by 5.5%. The forecast had been for loans to increase by 2.0%. The report on investment lending, showed an increased of 0.9% following on from a downwardly revised 1.6% increase in the previous month. The value of loans also fell by 5.0% after it had by 4.2% in December.

Wednesday’s calendar will show an extensive amount of European market data. This morning has seen Germany’s trade balance sheet show a surplus of €8.0 Billion, a fall from December’s surplus of €13.4 Billion. Economists had forecast that the trade surplus would increase to €14.5 billion. Germany’s imports increased by 6% a greater pace than the previous growth of 5% and exports unexpectedly fell by 6.3% from 3.4% increase in December. Analyst had predicted that exports would slow to 0.5% growth making the decline in exports quite damning. Perhaps the most influential news to come out form Europe today is Germany’s CPI which exceeded analyst expectations by an increased of 0.4% after January had grown by 0.2%. The annual data has seen CPI increase by 0.6%, again this was better than the forecasted 0.4% increase.

The European calendar continued with French production figures. Industrial production saw an increase of 1.6% in January from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month, while the consensus had been for 0.1% increase. Manufacturing production picked up by 0.8% from a drop of 0.9% in December. Annually both sets of data saw an increase with industrial production growing by 3.5% after 1.8% decline and manufacturing grew by 4.4% from 1.4% drop.

Finally Europe will round off it's calendar with Italian GDP and production figures. The report on seasonally adjusted production has grown by 2.6% increase in January after seeing production fall by 1.4% in December. The annualized report showed a greater pace of contraction with 3.3% drop in production following on from a 2.2% fall in the last report. Analyst had expected the pace of decline to slow to 1.5%.

Italy's GDP is expected to continue its pace of contraction of 0.2% from the 3rd quarter into the 4th and annually it is also expected retain its pace of contraction at 2.8%. The GDP data will be broken down into private consumption, public spending, investment, and export/import figures. The consensus is that private consumption with increase by 0.2% from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter. Conversely government spending will increase by 0.1% after falling by 0.2% previously. Total investments are expect to decline by 0.3% when it had previously grown by the same margin and likewise exports should slide by 0.1% from 2.5% in the preceding quarter. Growth in imports will slow down from 1.5% to 0.9%.

Like Europe, the UK will announce its production figures. January should see industrial production grow by 0.3%, a slight drop from the previous 0.5% pace of growth. Annually industrial production is predicted to slow down its decline of 3.6% to 0.8%. Sequentially manufacturing is predicted to slow from 0.9% growth to 0.2% and yearly production should pick up to see 1.4% growth after dropping by 1.9% in the last report.

Midday will bring the weekly MBA mortgage application figures for the US, which in the previous week saw an increase in applications of 14.6%. and at the same time Bloomberg Global will announce its confidence data for March. Nothing has been forecast for these 2 reports as of yet but logically enough an improvement in the preceding reports will push the Dollar up in value. The final report to come form the US today will be the monthly budget statement. Economists believe that the report will show a widen budget deficit of $222 billion from $193 billion. A wider deficit would place downward pressure on the Dollar. 

Data Releases

DAY	TIME	CURRENCY	EVENT
WED	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)
WED	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)
WED	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)
WED	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JAN)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Private Consumption (4Q)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Government Spending (4Q)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Total investments (4Q)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Exports (4Q)
WED	10:00	EUR	Italian Imports (4Q)
WED	12:00	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 5)
WED	12:00	USD	Bloomberg Global Confidence (MAR)
WED	15:00	USD	Wholesale Inventories (JAN)
WED	15:30	USD	DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 5)
WED	15:30	USD	DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 5)
WED	15:30	USD	DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 5)
WED	19:00	USD	Monthly Budget Statement (FEB)

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KBR Foreign Exchange PLC

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Tilbury

RM18 7ND